Analyzing the impacts of climate change on five agricultural livelihood capitals in Thanh Phu District, Ben Tre Province

The Mekong Delta faces severe climate change threats, with agricultural livelihoods increasingly vulnerable to saltwater intrusion, drought, and extreme weather events. This study applied the Sustainable Livelihood Framework to assess household-level vulnerability and adaptive capacity in Thanh Phu District, Ben Tre Province, addressing critical knowledge gaps in micro-level climate impact analysis on agricultural communities. Data were collected from 200 agricultural households in January 2024 using simple random sampling across five communes representing three ecological zones: freshwater, brackish, and saltwater. A structured 33-variable questionnaire examined sociodemographic characteristics, livelihood capitals, climate impacts, and adaptation strategies. Pearson correlation analysis assessed relationships between climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, drought, salinity) and five livelihood capital domains (human, natural, physical, financial, social). Financial and physical capitals emerged as most vulnerable to climate stressors. Financial capital negatively correlated with temperature (r = −0.290, p = 0.000) and positively with precipitation (r = 0.258, p = 0.000). Physical capital showed positive correlations with temperature, drought, and salinity. Human capital demonstrated negative relationships with temperature and drought, while natural capital positively correlated with precipitation and salinity. Social capital exhibited resilience with no significant climate correlations. Vulnerability patterns varied significantly across ecological zones. Financial and physical capitals require immediate prioritization in climate adaptation strategies. Zone-specific interventions are essential: freshwater zones need capacity building and diversification support, brackish zones require infrastructure investment and resource quality improvement, while saltwater zones necessitate comprehensive livelihood transformation integrating financial, technical, and organizational support to enhance long-term climate resilience.