Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Livelihood Capitals in Thanh Phu Commune, Coastal Area of the Mekong Delta

Background and objective: Agriculture remains a critical livelihood source for rural households in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, where climate change exacerbates vulnerability through flooding, drought, salinity intrusion, and unseasonal rainfall. These stressors threaten the five livelihood capitals (natural, human, physical, financial, and social) outlined in the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF). This study aims to examine the differential and combined impacts of these climatic hazards on livelihood capitals among agricultural households in Thanh Phu commune, a coastal area of the Mekong Delta highly exposed to climate risks.Methods: Data were collected in January 2024 (updated as of November 2025) through structured face-to-face interviews with 200 randomly selected agricultural households across three ecological zones in Thanh Phu commune. Livelihood capitals were assessed using 88 indicators covering natural, human, physical, financial, and social dimensions. Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA), with Pillai’s Trace as the primary statistic due to violated homogeneity assumptions, was employed to test the individual and interaction effects of four climate stressors on the five interrelated livelihood capitals.Results: MANOVA revealed significant multivariate effects of all single climate stressors (p ≤ .002), with flooding, drought, and salinity intrusion showing the strongest impacts (partial η² up to 0.382). Flooding significantly affected natural, human, social, and physical capitals; drought influenced human, social, and physical capitals; salinity intrusion impacted physical and financial capitals; while unseasonal rainfall primarily affected natural and financial capitals. Interaction effects were weaker and more selective, with notable synergistic impacts from flooding-drought and flooding-salinity on financial capital.Conclusion: Climate change imposes substantial and differentiated threats to livelihood capitals in coastal Mekong Delta communities, necessitating targeted, capital-specific adaptation strategies. Prioritizing resilience in natural, physical, and financial capitals through diversified farming, infrastructure improvement, and financial support mechanisms is essential for sustainable rural development under escalating climatic risks.