Determinants of seasonal elephant habitat use in small and enclosed conservation area

Aim: This study explored the drivers of seasonal African elephant (Loxodonta africana) habitat use in small, enclosed conservation areas with limited space and no migration corridors. It also examined how these habitat-use dynamics influence management strategies, human–wildlife conflict mitigation, and long-term sustainability of elephant populations in isolated protected areas. Location: The study was conducted in Mwea National Reserve, a 44 km² fenced protected area in Kenya. Methods: Elephant distribution was assessed using indirect signs of presence. A total of 96 straight-line dung transects (250 m each) and 350 m reconnaissance walks were conducted across the reserve to document dung occurrence. Seasonal distribution was modeled using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) employing five environmental predictors. We hypothesized that (i) water and forage availability would be the primary determinants of dry-season habitat use, and (ii) landscape variables would be more influential in the wet season when water and forage are less limiting. Results: MaxEnt models performed moderately well, with AUC values of 0.714 (dry season) and 0.664 (wet season). In the dry season, the most influential predictors were the presence of invasive plant species (28.9%), proximity to permanent rivers (26.9%), and elevation (26.5%). In the wet season, distance to the reserve boundary was the strongest predictor (38.9%). The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) maintained a relatively stable influence across seasons (16.2% dry, 20.1% wet). Conclusions: Seasonal shifts in elephant habitat-use underscore the need for targeted management while control of invasive species in dry-season grazing areas would enhance forage availability. Furthermore, maintaining fence integrity in the wet season is essential tool for reducing elephant range expansion and mitigating human–wildlife conflict. These findings provide spatially explicit insights for managing elephant populations in small, enclosed conservation areas particularly in savanna ecosystems.