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This is a Quantitative Study study.

September 18, 2025JAMA Network OpenOpen Access

Scenario Projections of COVID-19 Burden in the US, 2024-2025

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Decision analytical model predicts COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, suggesting benefits from vaccination.

COVID-19 is projected to cause 814,000 hospitalizations and 54,000 deaths in the US between April 2024 and April 2025.
Vaccinating high-risk groups only could reduce hospitalizations by 76,000 and deaths by 7,000, indicating substantial benefits.
Universal vaccine recommendations may prevent an additional 11,000 hospitalizations and 1,000 deaths among older adults.
Projections emphasize the importance of maintaining broad vaccine availability to reduce COVID-19 burden significantly.

Loo et al. (2025) studied this question.

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