A Study on the Coupling and Coordination of Basic Public Services and Population Development in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration Under the Context of Regional Collaborative Development

Amid demographic restructuring, analyzing the dynamic interplay between public services and population development is vital for advancing coordinated regional development in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration (BTHUA). This study developed an integrated evaluation framework, applying relative development indices, coupling coordination models, and obstacle analysis to examine the spatiotemporal evolution, coordination dynamics, and key constraints of the public service system and population system development from 2012 to 2023. The findings reveal the following: (1) Coordinated development policies have significantly boosted public service levels in cities near Beijing, whereas growth in Beijing and Tianjin has slowed. (2) Although overall coupling coordination across the BTHUA has improved, a marked core–periphery disparity persists. Beijing maintains high-level coordination, while most Hebei cities remain at marginal coordination levels. (3) The constraints on coordinated development vary substantially: Beijing primarily encounters structural challenges in population dynamics, whereas Tianjin and Hebei face basic infrastructural deficiencies. The study recommends developing a public service delivery system aligned with evolving demographic trends and proposes targeted strategies to optimize regional service structures based on each city’s core challenges.