Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Regional Difference in China’s Provincial Green Low-Carbon Development

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012, green and low-carbon development has become a national strategic priority. This study constructs a 39-indicator evaluation system grounded in the DPSIRM framework, which includes six interlinked subsystems. A key innovation lies in incorporating the Digital Inclusive Finance Index as a driver of green transitions and using Baidu search indices for “environmental protection” and “carbon dioxide” as proxies for public awareness. Using a projection pursuit model optimized by simulated annealing, we assess green low-carbon development across 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2021. Temporal and spatial patterns are analyzed via kernel density estimation and Moran’s I, while Theil Index decomposition quantifies regional disparities. Results: First, substantial variations exist among Chinese provinces in both subsystem performance and integrated green low-carbon development levels, and response subsystems have the greatest influence on the overall development level. Second, over time, the gaps in green, low-carbon development between provinces have become more pronounced. Third, geographically, a distinct east-to-west declining gradient characterizes the regional clustering patterns of green low-carbon development. Fourth, the Theil Index for green, low-carbon development exhibits an overall trend of fluctuating increase, indicating that the overall gap in green, low-carbon development is gradually widening, with within-group disparities as the primary cause. This research enhances understanding of China’s green and low-carbon development, actively promoting global sustainable development and environmental improvement.