Research on Provincial-Level High-Quality Energy Development Assessment and Transition Pathways in China

China’s dual-carbon targets necessitate a transition toward a greener, safer, and more efficient energy system; however, substantial disparities persist across provinces. This study evaluates high-quality energy development across 30 Chinese provinces (2011–2022) under the dual-carbon agenda and identifies differentiated transition pathways. Using a PCA-TOPSIS framework with regional pattern classification, we find an “east-high, west-low, central-dip” spatial structure and a nationwide improvement trend over time. Beijing and Guangdong remain persistent leaders, whereas the central region is the primary weak link. Green energy and energy innovation are the strongest contributors to provincial performance, highlighting the importance of clean supply and technological capability. Policy implications emphasize differentiated approaches: strengthen innovation leadership in the east, accelerate structural upgrading and clean substitution in central and resource-dependent provinces, and improve infrastructure and market integration to unlock renewable advantages in the west.