Assessing Growth Volatility and Land Use Change in India: A 21st Century Perspective Based on Annual Growth Rate Analysis

This study analyses the evolving dynamics and sustainability challenges of land use change in India during the 21st century, using Annual Growth Rate (AGR) and Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) metrics derived from authoritative secondary data. Rapid urbanization, demographic pressure, and industrialization are driving significant shifts in land use, with far-reaching implications for food security, ecological stability, and inclusive development. The results reveal marked spatial and temporal variability across land use categories. Expansion of non-agricultural land, while reflecting structural transformation, often occurs at the expense of fertile agricultural land and ecologically sensitive zones. Forest areas and common property resources exhibit erratic trends, underscoring the weakness of conservation enforcement. Stagnation in net sown area and volatility in cropping intensity point to difficulties in sustaining agricultural output without expanding cultivated land. Additionally, frequent fluctuations in reporting areas expose institutional weaknesses in land data governance, especially in less-resourced states. Crucially, the study finds that land use growth lacks uniformity, and persistent volatility exacerbates fragmentation, degradation, and marginalization, particularly for smallholder farmers. This instability underscores the urgency of transitioning toward integrated and sustainable land use governance. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for a paradigm shift from horizontal land expansion to vertical intensification and ecological regeneration. Key measures include the adoption of agroecological restoration practices, the promotion of agroforestry and Silvopasture Systems, the implementation of stricter urban zoning regulations, the enhancement of land monitoring through real-time GIS tools, and support for productivity-led agriculture. In sum, India’s current land use trajectory reflects a departure from traditional agrarian models toward more diverse but environmentally contentious practices. Achieving long-term sustainability will require adaptive, inclusive, and ecologically balanced land governance that aligns development imperatives with conservation goals.