September 23, 2025Deleted JournalOpen Access

The dual impact of tariffs and exchange rate fluctuations: the influence on China's soybean import prices amid the Sino-US trade war

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Analysis reveals tariffs mainly raised soybean costs in mid-2018, suggesting exchange rates became critical afterwards.

Tariffs were the main contributor to cost increases in June-July 2018, raising import prices significantly.
A 25% tariff raised costs by 1,379 yuan/ton, indicating a total 100% contribution to price hikes during that period.
Exchange rate fluctuations became the dominant factor from July to December 2018, increasing costs by 527 yuan/ton.
Combined effects from tariffs and exchange rates resulted in a total cost increase of 1,906 yuan/ton, highlighting the complexity of trade impacts.

Chenghuan Li (2025) studied this question.

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