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Purpose This article aims to empirically examine the alterations in the Sino-US agricultural trade pattern under the imposition of substantial tariffs, with a particular focus on the US “reciprocal tariffs.” Design/methodology/approach This article initially employs the value chain approach to analyze the dynamic shifts of Sino-US agricultural trade pattern since the 2018 Sino-US trade conflict. Subsequently, we utilize the Global Trade Analysis Project model to assess the impacts of the US “reciprocal tariffs” on China's agricultural trade. Findings Since 2018, the agricultural value chain between China and the United States has experienced accelerated restructuring, resulting in a decreased reliance of China's agricultural value chain on the United States. The US “reciprocal tariffs” are expected to exert only a limited impact on China's bulk agricultural commodities. The imposition of “reciprocal tariffs” and nontariff barriers by the United States will disrupt the global agricultural supply chain, elevate trade costs, affect Chinese agricultural production and market stability, and pose a threat to both China's and global food security. Practical implications The stability of agricultural trade and supply chains is of paramount importance for ensuring food security both in China and on a global scale. The US pursuit of deglobalization has inflicted systemic harm on food supply and value chains, affecting China and the world at large. Social implications The analysis presented in this article will assist policymakers in China and other nations in formulating strategies and implementing measures to engage in global food security governance. Originality/value Based on a novel and timely empirical analysis, this article offers policy implications for safeguarding agricultural and food security in China and globally.
Yang et al. (Mon,) studied this question.