Abnormal climate and its impact on market economy: solar radiation and rice price during the 1830s famine in Japan

Abstract We investigated the interplay between climatic anomalies and economic fluctuations in early modern Japan (1603 − 1867), focusing on the Tenpō Famine of the 1830s. Specifically, we reconstructed the solar radiation from 1821 to 1850 using descriptions from 18 historical diaries. This represents a novel approach to analyzing climatic impacts on agriculture and the economy during this period. The results show that lower solar radiation, indicative of poor weather conditions, was associated with higher rice prices, particularly during the summer of 1836. Applying principal component analysis to the reconstructed solar radiation data revealed spatiotemporal patterns that elucidated the link between climatic anomalies and their impacts on agricultural production and market prices during the Tenpō Famine. This demonstrates the sensitivity of market prices and economic stability to climatic fluctuations. By utilizing high-resolution data, this study reveals more detailed connections between climate, agriculture, and economic fluctuations than previously reported. Our findings provide valuable historical perspectives and significantly impact contemporary climate adaptation strategies and policymaking. Additionally, this study suggests further research directions and encourages continued exploration of the relationship among climate change, agriculture, and economic fluctuations, inspiring future research in this field.