Migrations caused by climate change: Population emigration after the major floods in Serbia in 2014

The article analyses the patterns of population migration from the areas in Serbia that were most affected by the floods in May 2014: the districts of Kolubara and Mačva and the municipality of Obrenovac. Drawing on theories that describe emigration as the most extreme form of adaptation to climate change, this paper focuses on the change in emigration trends after 2014 from the flood-affected municipalities and on identifying differences in the migration patterns between the affected districts. The analysis is based on data on internal population migration published by the Republic Institute for Statistics as part of the regular annual release of Demographic Statistics, as well as data on the extent of the 2014 fl ood published by the Republic Geodetic Institute. The results showed that after the flood, emigration rates increased in all municipalities of the Mačva district and in the municipality of Obrenovac, while in the municipalities of the Kolubara district the migration response of the population was completely different: emigration rates decreased after the fl ood, and this trend has continued to this day. The study of the correlation between emigration rates and the extent of the flooding did not reveal the expected strong positive correlation.