Climate challenges and population migration: The case of drought-prone areas

In recent decades, the impact of climate and environmental changes on the demographic determinants of population movement has been the focus of many scholarly articles. The eff ECT of these changes on the population development of a given area, both on the natural movement and on the spatial dynamics of the population, has been observed. In this paper, for the purpose of researching how certain natural and climatic phenomena affect population movement, it has been analyzed the impact of drought periods as a natural hazard on the level of population mobility or the level of population emigration. Classical methodological frameworks have been used, which include the use of demographic and statistical methods. The analysis included five areas, namely Severnobački, Severnobanatski, Srednjobanatski, Jablanički and Niški regions, which in a given period of time showed the highest level of vulnerability to drought and where the most pronounced impact of drought years on the intensity of population emigration can be expected. The evaluation of these trends was carried out for the period 2002-2022, during which two intervals of dry years and one interval of rainy years were identified in the aforementioned areas. The paper further compares the obtained values for Serbia and five selected areas most vulnerable to drought. Despite the theoretical starting points and the selection of regions with the lowest values of average annual precipitation, the results did not indicate a clear increase in emigration during drought years, both for the total population and for the agricultural population aged 20-39, which also represents the most mobile population.