Prediction of rail failures: new approaches and crack formation models

The issue of assessing the durability of railway rails and the development of cracks in the rail head is critical for ensuring the reliability and safety of railway transport. This paper presents a study aimed at evaluating the impact of various types of loads, temperature changes, and residual stresses on the development of cracks in the rail head. The research goal is to develop and refine models that describe the dynamics of crack propagation, as well as to improve methods for predicting rail longevity. To achieve the research objectives, methods of analytical modeling and experimental analysis were employed. Various types of loads, including thermal and mechanical, were evaluated, as well as the influence of residual stresses on stress intensity factors and crack growth. The paper presents models and equations for calculating stress intensity factors, accounting for complex loads and actual rail operating conditions. The research results confirm the hypothesis of the significant influence of thermal and mechanical loads on crack development and their stress intensity factors. Based on the obtained data, enhanced models were developed, providing more accurate predictions of rail longevity compared to existing ones. The study highlighted the need for further research to account for residual stresses and real operating conditions, which may improve rail failure prediction and prevention methods