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September 24, 2025International Journal of Climatology

Probabilistic Simulations and Projections of Global Temperature Based on Greenhouse Gases

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Authors

HYHang YuHunan Agricultural UniversityLWLong WangYunnan Agricultural UniversityYCYuanfang ChenHohai University

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Implication

Climate simulations reveal future temperature projections based on greenhouse gas scenarios, indicating uncertainty ranges.

Key Points

  • The study indicates that global temperature anomalies are likely to rise under various emission scenarios.
  • Temperature projections show uncertainty ranges of 0.38°C and 0.20°C for likely estimates, reducing overall uncertainty.
  • Simulations reveal that exceeding the 1.5°C temperature threshold is unlikely, though possible under certain scenarios.
  • The approach utilizes a non-stationary probability model, providing a detailed time profile for temperature exceedance probabilities.

Cite This Study

Yu et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68d6d8978b2b6861e4c3ed35https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70097
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