Navigating collateral damage: challenges, consequences, and targeting strategies in modern warfare

This article explores how collateral damage from combat operations can be understood, anticipated, and mitigated to minimise adverse impacts on civilian populations whilst achieving military objectives. The evolution of precision-guided munitions created high expectations for reducing civilian deaths in conflict. The impact of collateral damage often reverberates, creating adverse secondary effects that are antithetical towards achieving strategic objectives. This research uses process tracing to analyse two cases: airstrikes on the MSF Hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan and the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. These cases, along with other examples, are used to outline a range of collateral damage scenarios and potential mitigation options. These lessons are applied to anticipate and mitigate collateral damage issues in a hypothetical Indo-Pacific conflict.