Evaluating How Land-Use Changes Affect the Ecosystem Services Provided by Urban Parks and Green Spaces

This research assesses how land-cover transitions from 2012 to 2022 have impacted the value of ecosystem services in Denton County, Texas. Using remote sensing and spatial analysis, this study quantitatively links land-use change to its ecological and economic consequences. Full-county Landsat data were analyzed in ArcGIS Pro through supervised classification and categorical change detection. To quantify the impact of these changes, an accuracy assessment was performed, and a benefit-transfer method using both global and Texas-specific coefficients was applied to estimate the change in Ecosystem Service Value (ESV). Results revealed a complex dynamic: while the county experienced significant urban expansion, it also saw substantial greening as large areas of bare land transitioned to vegetation. However, this greening was not enough to offset the economic impact of losing high-value ecosystems. The analysis shows a net loss in total ESV over the decade, estimated between USD 24 million and USD 95 million per year, primarily driven by the significant reduction of water bodies. This study provides a replicable framework for policymakers to assess the environmental trade-offs of development and highlights the critical importance of preserving existing high-value ecosystems alongside urban greening initiatives.