Sustainability Assessment of China’s Hydrogen Transition: A Life Cycle–Geopolitical Risk Multi-Criteria Analysis

Abstract This study develops an extended life-cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA) that explicitly integrates geopolitical exposure into multi-criteria evaluation of hydrogen pathways. We construct a Geopolitical Risk Index (GPRI) combining critical-material reliance, trade concentration and supplier governance, and link it with environmental LCA, levelized cost, and social indicators under a unified cradle-to-gate boundary. Using multi-regional input–output (MRIO) accounting and 1,000-run Monte Carlo simulations across three pathways (photovoltaic electrolysis “green” hydrogen, coal-based “blue” hydrogen with carbon capture, utilization and storage [CCUS], and a hybrid portfolio), we examine baseline, conflict-shock and technology-advance scenarios. Results show a systematic decarbonization–sovereignty trade-off: green hydrogen achieves the lowest life-cycle emissions but exhibits the highest geopolitical vulnerability, driven by an 87% dependence on imported platinum-group catalysts and a 23% cost increase under conflict-related disruption; blue hydrogen demonstrates lower cost volatility (< 5%) and stronger supply-chain resilience, albeit with higher residual emissions. A diversified portfolio and domestic electrolyzer manufacturing attenuate risk while preserving climate gains. The framework provides a transparent way to embed geopolitical risk into LCSA and offers decision support for risk-aware hydrogen transitions in emerging economies.