A non-compensatory screening framework for environmental, cost, and supply-risk trade-offs across China-relevant hydrogen production pathway archetypes

Hydrogen can reduce emissions in hard-to-abate sectors, yet low-carbon production technologies introduce material, trade, and institutional dependencies that conventional life-cycle studies may not capture. This study develops a literature-calibrated, non-compensatory screening framework for three regionally framed, China-relevant pathway archetypes: Xinjiang-framed photovoltaic-powered proton-exchange-membrane electrolysis (green H 2 ), Shanxi-framed coal gasification with carbon capture, utilization and storage (blue H 2 ), and eastern-China-framed natural-gas steam-methane reforming (grey H 2 ). Environmental benchmarks, cost references, selected social questions, and an author-constructed illustrative supply-exposure score are reported separately. The adopted greenhouse-gas benchmarks are 2.5, 11.8, and 13.9 kg CO 2 -eq kg H 2 −1 , respectively; they are non-harmonized literature benchmarks rather than recalculated or site-specific estimates. The solar-electricity case has the lowest adopted benchmark, while the PV–PEM archetype has the highest illustrative supply-exposure score (GPRI 0.74). Under material-supply stress, its LCOH rises from 18.5 to 19.9 CNY kg H 2 −1 , whereas the technology-advance case lowers it to 15.0. Under Combined Adverse Conditions, LCOH rises to 21.7, 15.7, and 14.2 CNY kg H 2 −1 for the green, blue, and grey archetypes. These conditional results identify project-level questions and do not establish a national pathway ranking.