The Agricultural Regeneration of Salento (Apulia, Italy) After the Xylella fastidiosa Crisis: Managing the Shocks Through Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods

In recent years, agriculture has increasingly faced shocks related to climate change, pathogen outbreaks, and geopolitical instability, highlighting the need for sustainable regeneration strategies. This study develops an innovative Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) framework that integrates the Delphi method, the Analytic Network Process (ANP), and the Aggregated Decision-Making (ADAM) method—the first application of this combination in the context of agricultural regeneration. The framework was applied to the Apulia region (Italy), heavily affected by the Xylella fastidiosa epidemic, and evaluated alternative crops across 30 economic, environmental, and socio-cultural sub-criteria. Results indicate that carob, walnut, and pistachio outperform other options by combining strong economic viability, climate resilience, and cultural compatibility. To mitigate the risks of monoculture, crop diversification strategies based on high-ranked alternatives are recommended. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of results, and the framework demonstrates high scalability, offering a transparent tool for policymakers in regions facing similar agricultural crises.