Approaches to Short-Term Prediction of Seismic Hazard for the Area of Avacha Bay (Kamchatka)

The article summarizes the experience of many years of research related to the creation of a geophysical system capable of providing sufficiently effective short-term prediction of seismic hazards for the Avacha Bay area, where the largest settlements of Kamchatka are located. The authors use an approach in which the main goal is not accurate short-term prediction of strong earthquakes, but a qualitative («low», «elevated», «significantly elevated») assessment of the current seismic hazard for the controlled area. Qualitative assessments of seismic hazard are based on the current results of continuous monitoring of the preparation of strong earthquakes in the Avacha Bay area, which can cause significant tremors in the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky area. This approach makes it possible to inform the authorities and structures of the Ministry of Emergency Situations in a timely manner if there are grounds for a significant probability of concussions of at least 5 points in the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky area for the next 2–4 weeks. Igor Dobrovolsky's consolidation model is used as a basic physical model for the preparation of strong Kamchatka earthquakes.