Assessment of SME Loan Portfolio Quality in Kazakhstan: Empirical Analysis from 2013 to 2023

The article is devoted to the assessment of the quality of the loan portfolio of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) in Kazakhstan to identify periods of credit instability and hidden risks that can limit the investment potential of enterprises. The methodological framework encompasses an analysis of the overdue debt structure, calculation of the sustainability coefficient and delinquency index, as well as cluster analysis to identify periods with varying degrees of credit risk. The results showed that the share of loans without delay increased from 69.2% in 2013 to 94.2% in 2023, while the share of problem loans over 90 days decreased from 23.9% to 3.9%. The overdue debt index decreased from 0.31 to 0.06, and the sustainability coefficient exceeded 5.5 in 2022, indicating an improvement in payment discipline and the ability of SMEs to service debts. The cluster analysis identified two periods: the crisis (2017-2018) and the recovery (2021-2023), which confirms the need for a differentiated policy in managing credit risks. The study confirmed the presence of cyclicity in the dynamics of SME credit risks and showed that the stabilization of the loan portfolio is possible only with a combination of macroprudential tools, government support programs and digitalization of credit monitoring. Future studies could focus on ESG factors and the level of digitalization of enterprises in credit risk assessment models, as well as comparative cross-country studies to identify adaptive policies in the context of regional differences.