Ahorro e inflación en Ecuador: análisis mediante el modelo VECM (vector de corrección de errores)

In the context of Ecuador's fully dollarized economy since 2000, understanding the relationship between savings and inflation is essential for assessing macroeconomic policy effectiveness. This study examines that relationship using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and monthly data from the Central Bank of Ecuador and INEC, covering the period from 2003 to 2023. The objective was to determine whether short- and long-term relationships exist between savings variables (demand, savings, and time deposits) and inflation (CPI). The results confirm the existence of cointegration, with two long-term vectors and statistically significant short-term adjustment dynamics. The model's stability was validated; however, issues of autocorrelation and non-normal residuals were identified. Theoretically, the findings partially contradict the classical quantity theory of money and support post-Keynesian views of endogenous money. It is concluded that savings and inflation are structurally interrelated in the long run, even in the absence of traditional monetary policy mechanisms. These findings highlight the importance of promoting national savings and productivity as key macroeconomic stabilization strategies in a dollarized environment.