Mudflows as a destructive factor influencing the tectonic uplift of river basins (a case study of the northeast slope of the Greater Caucasus)

The study investigates the complex dynamics of mudflows on the northeastern slope of the Greater Caucasus in Azerbaijan, emphasizing their role as a destructive geomorphological factor influencing river basin evolution. Mudflows are shown to be closely linked with surface erosion processes intensified by continuous tectonic uplift and climatic changes. The research integrates long-term observational data, hydrological monitoring, and field expeditions up to 2024, employing a multidisciplinary methodology combining cluster analysis, geographical determinism, and GIS-based spatial modeling. It reveals that intense frost weathering, coupled with increased rainfall intensity (up to 3 mm/min), significantly accelerates surface denudation, producing vast quantities of loose sediment available for mobilization during extreme rainfall events. The lithological composition of the region, dominated by weakly consolidated sedimentary rocks, further enhances susceptibility to erosion and debris flow formation. Analysis of suspended sediment discharge across 24 monitoring stations highlights a strong correlation between gully network density and erosion intensity, with surface erosion rates ranging from 0.003 to 0.13 mm/year during five-hour mudflow events. The impact of global climate change is also evident, with rising temperatures accelerating glacial retreat and shifting rainfall patterns, thereby increasing the frequency and magnitude of mudflow occurrences. Vegetation cover emerges as a critical mitigating factor, reducing erosion through root reinforcement and interception of rainfall. The findings underscore the need for integrated risk assessment frameworks and sustainable land-use planning strategies to address the growing threat posed by mudflows to infrastructure, agriculture, and human settlements. This work provides a scientific foundation for predicting future mudflow activity and developing targeted mitigation measures tailored to the unique physical-geographic conditions of the region.