Impact of Changes in Agriculture Import Tariffs on Afghanistan's Food Availability and Macroeconomic Factors

Afghanistan grappled with a severe food insecurity crisis, with two out of every five individuals experiencing acute food insecurity. The country heavily relied on imports, with cereals accounting for 66 percent of imports and wheat accounting for 73 percent of calories. This study scrutinized the influence of changing agricultural import tariffs on macroeconomic variables and food availability. The short-term impact of agricultural import tariffs was evaluated using GAMS software, utilizing a computable general equilibrium model and a social accounting matrix. Four diverse scenarios were investigated, focusing on changes in import tariffs for various agricultural products. The findings revealed that lower tariffs resulted in augmented imports and declined domestic output, whereas the opposite trend occurred with tariff upsurges. Scenario C analysed the effect of a 50 percent change on the agricultural import tariff rate of 6.12 percent. Wheat imports increased nearly 1 percent with a decline in tariffs, while they diminished by almost 22 percent with a surge in tariffs. All agricultural categories were affected, except for opium and forestry. The study volumes, lower labor and capital sharing rates, higher supply prices, and lower domestic output. To ensure food security, the government needed to advocate for scenarios that reduced tariffs, particularly through a comprehensive liberalization policy.