Forecasting income and expenses of the Social Fund of Russia on compulsory social insurance in case of temporary disability and in connection with motherhood

The article provides a brief description of the activities of the Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation (SIFR) until its merger (January 1, 2023) with the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation into the unified Social Fund of Russia (SFR). The object of the study was compulsory social insurance in case of temporary disability and in connection with maternity, and the subject of the study was an evaluation of the balance in the short term of the SFR budget for this type of insurance. A mathematical model is proposed for forecasting the income and expenses of the SFR for this type of insurance. To construct the mathematical model the data from reports on the implementation of the SIFR budget for the periods from 2008 to 2022 was used. A second-order linear homogeneous system of ordinary differential equations with constant coefficients was used as the basic mathematical apparatus. The model obtained was tested for adequacy. At the same time the model demonstrated high approximation accuracy and good retro-forecast accuracy. Based on the constructed model, a forecast of the indicated expenses and incomes for 2023–2025 was designed, from which it follows that in a given period, expenses will exceed incomes. Based on the results obtained, some recommendations are given to eliminate (reduce) the potential destabilization of the SFR budget for this type of insurance.