Agreement between patient-reported flares and clinically significant flare status in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in sustained remission: data from the ARCTIC REWIND trials

Objectives To explore the agreement between patient-reported flare status and clinically significant flare status in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in sustained remission. Method Patients with RA in remission for ≥12 months on stable treatment were included in the ARCTIC REWIND tapering trials and pooled 12-month data used in current analyses. Patient-reported flare status was assessed according to the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology flare questionnaire; ‘Are you having a flare of your RA at this time?’ (yes/no). A clinically significant flare was defined as a combination of Disease Activity Score (DAS) >1.6, increase in DAS of ≥0.6 and 2 swollen joints, or the rheumatologist and patient agreed that a clinically significant flare had occurred. Agreement coefficient, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of patient-reported flare status with regard to clinically significant flare status were determined. Results Of 248 patients, 64% were women, age 56.1 (11.8) years, disease duration 4.1 (2.8–7.4) years, DAS 0.8 (0.3). 35% of patients reported a flare at least once, clinically significant flares were recorded in 21%. 48/53 clinically significant flares (91%) led to an intensification of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugss. In 621/682 (91%) visits, patient-reported and clinically significant flare status were in agreement, agreement coefficient 0.89. Sensitivity and specificity were both 91%, positive predictive value of patient-reported flare status 46% and negative predictive value 99%. Conclusion Among patients in sustained remission, patient-reported flare status was accurate in ruling out a clinically significant flare. About half of the patient-reported flares were assessed to be clinically significant. These findings support a potential for using patient-reported flare status in remote monitoring of patients with RA in sustained remission.