Navigating Complexity: Continuity and Change in European Governance, 2023/2024

This Annual Review (AR) of the European Union (EU) focuses on the events and developments of 2023. However, our editorial was crafted shortly after a critical turning point, that is, the institutional and political renewal process that began on 6–9 June 2024. During this period, nearly 400 million European citizens were entitled to elect the 720 Members of the 10th European Parliament (EP) Legislature. In the following weeks, crucial decisions were made regarding the EU's top leadership positions. Whilst this pivotal moment will be explored in detail in the next AR, dedicated to 2024, it serves as the backdrop for our reflection on the main developments and dynamics in European governance during 2023. Therefore, after outlining our editorial vision, we briefly reconstruct what can be seen as a choice point at which significant options shape the trajectory of the European project. The following section provides an overview of the AR before making some concluding remarks. This editorial marks the inaugural effort of a newly appointed team of co-editors. It serves a symbolic purpose by presenting the vision that guided our work. The title of this section aims to encapsulate the pivotal moment in the aftermath of the 2024 EP elections. At the same time, it aptly reflects the essence of our project and serves as a fitting motto. We are firmly committed to maintaining the AR's tradition of high-quality articles, a standard impeccably upheld by the colleagues who preceded us in this job. Concurrently, we aim to introduce specific innovations to enhance the publication's structure and scope. Building on the excellent work of our predecessors and in agreement with the staff of the University Association for Contemporary European Studies (UACES), we have decided to embed the traditional AR's Annual Lecture within the UACES Annual Conference (Trento, 1–4 September 2024). This move aims to enhance the visibility of the AR within the scholarly community, fostering greater engagement amongst its members. Like in past editions, the AR opens with the traditional Annual Lecture, held this year by Alina Mungiu-Pippidi (2024). In addition, we have introduced a division into three thematic sections, supplemented by a 'Critical Dialogue' section on a book that we consider particularly relevant for understanding the EU project and, more generally, Europe's current state of affairs. The three thematic sections encompass (1) the roles of pivotal actors and institutions in shaping European integration, (2) the main policy developments concerning domestic and foreign domains in the year of reference and (3) the main electoral developments in the year under review. In the third section, we also introduced a sub-section called 'Elections in the Mirror', which deals with comparative evaluations of elections in geographically close EU member states, often facing similar challenges. This addition aims to provide a more fine-grained analysis, illustrating the commonalities and differences amongst the member states, thereby offering more profound insights into Europe's political dynamics and electoral landscapes. Lastly, the new Critical Dialogue section aims to foster discussions based on a book published in the year covered by the AR (Bartels, 2023), involving two reviewers and a reply from the author, to stimulate public debate and enhance scholarly communication. As such, the different parts converge to provide readers with an integrated approach to European politics, unravelling the intricate interactions between multi-level governance and the EU political framework. This cohesive structure aims to offer a comprehensive understanding of how various political, institutional and policy elements interplay within the broader European context. In implementing this subtle integration between changes and continuities in the editorial line, we have recognised the need to emphasise inclusivity. This edition includes contributions from 19 women and 14 men. Our efforts also aim to involve senior and junior scholars and enhance international academic co-operation on joint research topics. Aligned with the goals of the Journal of Common Market Studies (JCMS), we strived to broaden the global outreach of the AR by attracting authors from around the world, a task we will further pursue in future editions, as well as by incorporating practitioners and enhancing the AR's elements of multi-disciplinarity. European citizens went to the polls for the 2024 European elections in a global context marked by complexity and intricate international dynamics. This includes two wars: the third year of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, which represents the most significant international war in Europe since World War II, and the escalation since October 2023 of the Israel–Hamas war, which has led to a Middle East crisis and is challenging member states' unity. In the background, there are growing tensions in EU–China relations, and the prospect of the possible re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States threatens to bring further uncertainties.1 Every 5 years, European elections represent a pivotal moment for the EU, marking the beginning of a new political and institutional cycle. New actors come in with the renewal of the EP and the College of Commissioners. Potentially, the turnover can involve all leadership positions: the Presidency of the Commission, that of the EP and the European Council (EUCO) and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice President of the Commission (HR/VP). Similarly, new priorities are set in the EU political agenda, defined by the Heads of State and Government (HOSG) in their 'Strategic Agenda 2024–29' and by the Commission President in the new 'Political Guidelines 2024–29'. In this respect, the 2024 renewal process was unusual, as it involved more political continuity than change, with the explicit aim of securing the survival of the European project amidst a proliferation of challenges. In this sense, it can be viewed as an unusual phase of (conservative) transition that managed to prevent radical alterations in the evolution of the EU's trajectory by explicitly investing in continuity in leaders and dossiers. We can identify at least five main continuities in both the degree and type of response from EU citizens to the challenge of institutional renewal (e.g., turnout and electoral results) and the outcomes (e.g., group formation, leadership positions and agenda-setting). First, the turnout of European elections (51.05%) represented only a very slight improvement on that of 5 years ago (50.66%), thus fuelling criticisms that consider this level of participation 'too small to allow us to speak of a substantial vote of confidence in the von der Leyen regime' (Ludlow, 2024, p. 4). Second, as in the previous two EP elections (2014 and 2019), the electoral campaign across several countries was marked by the fear of the rise of various populist and Eurosceptic radical right parties (Beaudonnet and Gomez, 2024; Bergmann et al., 2021; Braun and Carteny, 2024; Mudde, 2024). Despite these parties performing well and securing over a quarter of the seats, their overall impact was limited for the third consecutive time. This limitation was mainly due to their splitting into various political groups and, in some cases, their isolation as non-affiliated members. Third, even though the increased division on the right means that the 10th Legislature is also more fragmented (eight political groups, one more than the outgoing Parliament), the three main pro-European groups – the European People's Party (EPP), Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberals of Renew Europe – have secured a majority of seats, eventually reinforced by a weakened Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance. Fourth, in terms of leading actors and their political families, EP President Roberta Metsola (EPP) and especially Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (EPP) were confirmed for a second term,2 acknowledging the dominant role played in EU politics by the EPP, which has managed to maintain the Presidency of the Commission since 2004. The negotiations after the EP elections also brought new figures for the top EU jobs, such as António Costa, a former Portuguese PM, for the Presidency of the EUCO, and Kaja Kallas, the incumbent Estonian PM, for the HR/VP position. These decisions were not taken unanimously. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban supported Costa's nomination but voted against von der Leyen and abstained on Kallas, whilst Italian PM Giorgia Meloni abstained on von der Leyen but voted against the other two (Ludlow, 2024, p. 14). Fifth, continuity also prevails in priorities, with an agenda focused on enhancing the European economy, strengthening European security and defence and protecting European values. Intensive political activity preceded the EP's political groups' formation, underscoring the centrality of the Parliament and confirming the importance of parliamentary groups within the EU political system, influencing appointments, speaking time, resources and decision-making processes (Ahrens et al., 2022; Bressanelli and Chelotti, 2020). Despite gaining new members, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) was soon overtaken by a newly formed group. This new group, 'Patriots for Europe', includes major right-wing parties like Spain's Vox and Italy's Lega, surpassing the ECR with 84 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). Concurrently, a smaller group, 'Europe of Sovereign Nations', was established with 25 members from eight countries, led by Germany's Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). The French Rassemblement National (RN) is the largest party in the new Patriots for Europe group, whilst the German AfD leads the Europe of Sovereign Nations. The Italian Brothers of Italy, whose far-right classification is debated (Baldini, 2024), is the leading force in the ECR. Despite efforts by the ECR, particularly under the leadership of its President and Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, to position itself as a critical player in a more right-leaning parliament, the group remained isolated from the coalition that secured top European positions (Fabbrini, 2024). Despite these re-organisations, the groups connected with the far right face challenges due to internal divisions on economic and foreign policy issues and differing strategies concerning the mainstream political groups. This fragmentation is evident in the varied responses to the EP's (2024) resolution on Russia's war against Ukraine, which several parties of these groups opposed. Such fragmentation, however, does not equate to defeat. These parties still have the potential to influence the European agenda, especially when they lead their national governments, as in the cases of Italy and Hungary. Beyond these re-organisations, the political equilibrium within the hemicycle exhibits notable continuity, especially with the reaffirmation of the two most numerous party groups, namely, the EPP (with 188 MEPs) and the S&D (with 136 MEPs). In contrast, the Greens and (especially) the Liberals saw a significant loss of seats, particularly within the German and French delegations. In this context, continuity and traditional politics prevailed, as they emerged from the inaugural speeches of both Metsola and von der Leyen. Metsola's (2024) address reaffirmed her commitment to strengthening the Parliament and Europe, advocating for institutional reforms and the rule of law. Not surprisingly, von der Leyen's (2024) 'Political Guidelines' drew on the consultations with the supporting EP political groups and the Strategic Agenda and were organised around the following priorities: 'Europe's sustainable prosperity and competitiveness', 'European defence and security', 'supporting people, strengthening our societies and our social model', 'sustaining our quality of life', 'protecting our democracy and upholding our values', 'leveraging our power and partnership as a global Europe' and 'delivering together and preparing our Union for the future'. The articles included in this AR focus on the pivotal developments across Europe and within the EU in 2023, spanning electoral dynamics, critical policy initiatives, institutional changes and geopolitical strategies. Highlighting key actors, institutional dynamics and emerging trends, the authors provide nuanced insights into the complexities and opportunities confronting Europe as it navigates through profound political, economic and societal transformations. Mungiu-Pippidi (2024) critically examines the EU's strategy for its Eastern border amid ongoing tensions with Russia, questioning whether the EU's current approach of extending a European perspective to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia will suffice. She argues that the Russian invasion of Ukraine underlines the need for a new EU paradigm, suggesting that traditional foreign policy tools may be inadequate. Her analysis offers an extremely valuable context for understanding the European agenda in 2023 and beyond. It intersects with other articles, especially in the initial section of the AR, devoted to evaluating the key actors and institutions of the EU's previous political and institutional cycle (2019–2024). The decision to have a dedicated section on 'Key Actors and Institutions' originates from two main elements, namely, our understanding of the EU as a collective political actor and of the 2023/2024 period as a peculiar combination of continuity and innovations that we have briefly outlined above, whilst also making sense of what lies beneath leadership positions. Indeed, studies on EU leadership and the EU response to crises have underlined that leadership in the EU is both 'collective and reciprocal' involving the interaction amongst multiple leaders (Müller and Van Esch, 2020, p. 1052), that other EU institutions can influence the EUCO-centred mode of policy-making during crises [see the New Institutional Leadership (NIL) framework by Smeets and Beach, 2022, and the Pluri-Institutional approach by Kassim, 2023] and that the EU has emerged in its response to crises as a 'collective power' that, through the mobilisation of its resources, can get things done (Laffan, 2023). This understanding prompts us to try to look inside the black box of the EU political system. Hence, this section analyses von der Leyen's 'Geopolitical Commission', the leading role played by Charles Michel as President of the EUCO, the role played by HR/VP Josep Borrell in shaping the EU's geopolitical ascent, how the 9th Legislature of the EP was affected by the Qatargate scandal and the EUCO system of governance post-crisis. Overall, these articles highlight the complex interplay between individual leadership, collective power, personal, institutional and ideational resources, intra- and inter-institutional dynamics, policy legacies and challenges coming from the domestic and external environments. Baracani and Kassim (2024) reflect on the origins and evolution of the 'Geopolitical Commission' and discuss the Commission President's personal style and entrepreneurship, the contingency that allowed for the concept's expansion and the institutional conditions that were propitious to von der Leyen's success. They show that the 'Geopolitical Commission' built on her predecessor's legacy (the Juncker Commission) and added new geopolitical elements. The authors argue that the von der Leyen Commission's success results from the President's resources, external challenges and the readiness of other key figures and institutions to recognise von der Leyen's ability to assume such a leadership role credibly. Müller and Tömmel (2024) provide a fine-grained analysis of Charles Michel's leadership as President of the EUCO. Whilst his presidency has introduced procedural innovations and secured unity amongst member states during unprecedented crises, critiques highlight insufficiently prepared meetings and competitive engagement with the Commission President. The article uses leadership theory to evaluate Michel's effectiveness in brokering consensus and advancing European integration. The conclusion is that whilst Michel excelled as a consensus broker, his strong political ambitions and desire for public visibility sometimes hindered his successes. Hadfield and Demir (2024) critically analyse Josep Borrell's tenure as HR/VP from December 2019 to June 2024. This article examines Borrell's effectiveness in mediating foreign policy responses from EU member states and fostering a unified stance during crises. The authors explore how Borrell's approach enabled him to maintain or enhance his leadership role through the 'performance' of key policies. They conclude that Borrell's tenure involved both tacit and active contributions, from moderate efforts to advance von der Leyen's 2019 'Geopolitical Commission' agenda during Brexit and COVID-19 to successful alignment of energy policy with EU foreign policy and a unified response to the invasion of Ukraine. Costa (2024) examines the Qatargate scandal, the biggest corruption scandal the EP was confronted with in its history, reflecting on the importance of the fight against corruption and conflict of interest for the independence and credibility of the EP and the EU. After recalling how the EP has historically addressed the question of interest representation and MEPs' conduct, the article shows how this debate was reactivated after the 2019 European elections and how the Qatargate has fuelled reforms. It presents the initiatives the EP took and how a new EU body in charge of ethics was recently created. However, the author argues that these reforms might not be considered up to the challenges as they avoid key issues like the external incomes of MEPs, revolving doors or the funding of European political parties. Smeets and Beach (2024) assess the new institutional balance that resulted from a decade of crises, and the EU attempts to mitigate these crises through major policy reforms. They evaluate the applicability of the NIL framework post-crisis in the case of the EU response to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). In particular, they evaluate the ability of the EUCO to steer the EU institutional machinery in coming up with a financial response to the IRA in the shape of a sovereignty fund, which subsequently became the Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform as part of the mid-term review of the Multiannual Financial Framework. They show that the EUCO's reach and grasp are more limited in a post-crisis environment. This section offers an in-depth examination of key EU policy developments and challenges in 2023, addressing the Rule of Law crisis, the new Pact on Migration, climate and energy transitions, EU enlargement and cybersecurity. Despite the EU's expanding competencies, internal conflicts amongst member states have intensified. Democracy, a key principle of European integration, has been under strain due to the Rule of Law crisis linked to illiberal shifts in Hungary and Poland (Gora and de Wilde, 2020; Theuns, 2022). This strain extends to migration policy, where debates have polarised (Blanc, 2023), and the Green European Agenda has sparked social and economic tensions (Bernstein et al., 2023; Sandri et al., 2023). Whilst enlargement policy was once seen as a success (Grabbe, 2006), recent scrutiny, particularly regarding the Western Balkans and the inclusion of Ukraine and Moldova, has prompted a complex debate about enlargement during wartime (Karjalainen, 2023). Additionally, cybersecurity, although crucial, remains less prominent in public discourse (Carrapico and Farrand, 2020). Coman and Buzogány (2024) analyse the EU's evolving response to the Rule of Law crisis, documenting a shift from soft to hard policy instruments and its significant implications for EU governance. Wolff (2024) reviews the new Pact on Migration, highlighting its role in redefining solidarity and responsibility regarding irregular migration and asylum and noting a shift towards more restrictive policies influenced by rising far-right ideologies. This pact illustrates the EU's pragmatic, security-focused approach amid complex geopolitical circumstances. Bocquillon (2024) discusses the EU's climate commitments, notably the Green Deal and its 'Fit for 55' legislative package. His analysis highlights how geopolitical factors, such as Russia's war on Ukraine and economic concerns, have impacted the momentum for climate policies. Despite these challenges, Bocquillon argues that whilst the climate and energy transition agenda may be resilient, its framing is shifting in response to domestic and global pressures. Koval and Vachudova (2024) assess the EU's enlargement process in light of Russia's war and Ukraine's response. They argue that the crisis has revived the EU's role in European security and foreign policy but also exposed limitations due to ad hoc member states' coalitions and a lack of Franco–German leadership. Their analysis calls for a meritocratic and streamlined approach to enlargement and foreign policy, partially echoing elements dealt with by Mungiu-Pippidi (2024). Lastly, Carrapico and Farrand (2024) highlight advancements in EU cybersecurity, emphasising the NIS2 Directive and proposed Cyber Solidarity and Resilience Acts as part of a broader strategy to enhance digital sovereignty and global leadership. They frame these initiatives within the context of regulatory mercantilism, aligning economic and security goals to strengthen the EU's cybersecurity stance. In conclusion, this section underlines the EU's adaptability and resilience amidst internal and external challenges. Responses to the Rule of Law crisis, evolving energy policies, renewed focus on enlargement, and advancements in cybersecurity illustrate the complexity of maintaining unity and advancing integration within the EU, emphasising the need for strategic foresight and collaborative efforts in a shifting geopolitical landscape. The section on electoral developments provides a comprehensive analysis of key elections across Europe and neighbouring regions via two sub-sections. We first analyse the results of the elections held in Turkey and Cyprus. Then, considering that 2023 general elections were held in countries with similar geopolitical contexts, we introduce a sub-section called 'Elections in the Mirror', which focuses on pairs of countries: Poland and Slovakia; Greece and Spain; and Estonia and Finland. Çarkoğlu (2024) delves into the 2023 Turkish elections, initially anticipated as a potential turning point against the incumbent Justice and Development Party and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's leadership. Despite expectations, Erdoğan has secured victory in the second round, bolstered by strategic voter mobilisation and support from conservative demographics. The article explores factors influencing Erdoğan's electoral success, underscoring ongoing debates on Turkey's political trajectory and democratic governance amid evolving internal and external challenges. Adamides (2024) examines the 2023 Cypriot presidential elections as a transformative moment. For the first time since 1960, Cyprus, the only member state with a presidential system of government, elected a president (Nikos Christodoulides) who did not have the direct support of the two major parties. The analysis traces historical contexts, emphasising the centrality of the Cyprus problem in electoral campaigns and evaluating implications for regional dynamics, including the evolution of Greek–Turkish relations. Haughton et al. (2024) analyse Poland and Slovakia, highlighting profound domestic, EU and international implications. In Poland, the return of Donald Tusk brought about an attempt to steer the country back towards the liberal democratic mainstream. Conversely, Slovakia's new government took an illiberal turn, reflecting divergent societal preferences and geopolitical vulnerabilities. These electoral outcomes underline the complexities of national preferences within the EU, shaping policies and responses to pressing international issues such as the Ukraine conflict. Moreover, the elections highlighted challenges of democratic resilience and backsliding, particularly evident in Poland's efforts to reverse democratic erosion amid internal and external pressures. Verney and Field (2024) provide a nuanced analysis of the 2023 elections in Greece and Spain. These elections, amidst the enduring aftermath of the European debt crisis, signalled pivotal changes in post-crisis party systems. Whilst conservative parties claimed victory in both Greece and Spain, the outcomes differed significantly: Greece's New Democracy (ND) secured a majority, whilst Spain's People's Party (PP) struggled to garner sufficient parliamentary support, resulting in an ND majority government in Greece and a PSOE (Partido Socialista Obrero Español)-led minority coalition with the newly formed Sumar in Spain. Jakobson and Peltoniemi (2024) analyse the 2023 elections in Estonia and Finland. The global pandemic and the war in Ukraine impacted both countries. Despite differing political cultures – Finland's consensus-based and Estonia's majoritarian ones – both countries faced similar political and affective polarisation issues, with which voters of either country were largely unfamiliar. In Finland, polarisation has widened the divide between the political right and left, whereas in Estonia, where the left is weak, polarisation is more along conservative-liberal lines. Cyprus and Turkey highlight transformative electoral moments that challenge established political norms, reflecting the varied and complex political trajectories shaping the region's future. Greece and Spain exemplify how post-crisis legacies have restructured party dynamics, resulting in contrasting electoral outcomes favouring majority and coalition governments, respectively. Despite their distinct governance traditions, Estonia and Finland converge towards political polarisation under the influence of Americanised campaign dynamics. Poland's progression towards liberal democracy contrasts sharply with Slovakia's turn towards illiberalism, underscoring broader challenges to democratic resilience within the EU. Last, the 'Critical Dialogue' section discusses intra-democracy challenges and geopolitical strategies shaping Europe's future. Drawing on Larry Bartels' (2023) Democracy Erodes From the Top, the section explores rising support for right-wing populist parties across Europe since the early 21st century, providing nuanced insights into electoral trends and democratic challenges for contemporary Europe. Casal Bértoa (2024) and Kritzinger (2024) dialogue with Bartels to unravel the causes of the right-wing populist party resurgence, contextualising recent EP elections within broader democratic challenges. The discussion critiques prevailing narratives and explores implications for EU governance and democratic norms, highlighting the complexities of electoral shifts and societal responses. This dialogue provides significant reflections on how to interpret the shifting electoral markets. Most crucially, the dialogue presents important arguments on whether European democracies are currently in crisis and methodological suggestions for future research on mass and elite-driven political change. In continuity with the previous ARs, a chronology of the main developments of 2023 has been prepared by Andrea Pareschi (2024) and published online. Even if, in some cases, the distinctions can be blurred, we have introduced another small innovation in this section by classifying events according to the levels – international, EU and member states – at which they occurred. Hence, it is possible to find both the chronology with the list of events at all three levels and the chronological list at each level. The 2023 AR thoroughly analyses the pivotal political, policy and governance developments that shaped Europe and the EU throughout the year. From significant electoral shifts to evolving cybersecurity policies and institutional dynamics, the review provides invaluable insights into the challenges and opportunities facing the EU in an increasingly dynamic global environment. Each section contributes to a nuanced understanding of Europe's multifaceted realities, reflecting on their implications for future governance, democracy and regional stability. Looking forward to 2024, the upcoming AR will explore the aftermath of the European elections, a critical event signalling the start of a new political and institutional cycle for the EU. With a restructured EP and new leadership in key EU institutions such as the Commission and the EUCO, the review will critically assess the impact of these changes on EU governance and policy-making. Against persistent geopolitical tensions, the AR 2024 will analyse how these external factors shape EU strategies and internal cohesion. It will also examine the implications of the EU's evolving approach to migration policy, influenced by recent electoral outcomes and a broader trend towards more stringent measures. Furthermore, the review will delve into the complexities of EU–China relations and other global challenges, exploring how these interactions inform European policies and priorities. By scrutinising these issues in detail, the 2024 AR aims to maintain its tradition of comprehensively understanding Europe's strategic directions and governance challenges in the coming year. This will provide crucial insights for policy-makers, analysts and stakeholders navigating the intricate dynamics of the EU and its external relations. Open access publishing facilitated by Universita degli Studi di Bologna, as part of the Wiley - CRUI-CARE agreement.