The short- and long-term determinants of fertility in Uruguay

BACKGROUNDUruguay was one of the pioneers of the demographic transition in Latin America and the Caribbean.It experienced very early declines in both fertility and mortality, but teenage fertility remained high until recently. OBJECTIVEWe study the short-and long-term determinants of fertility at different reproductive age stages (less than 20 years old, 20 to 29 years old, and 30 years old and over). METHODSWe employ time-series analysis methods based on data from 1968 to 2021 and panel-data techniques based on department-level statistical information from 1984 to 2019. CONCLUSIONOur time-series analysis indicates a cointegration (long-term) relationship between fertility and economic performance, education, and infant mortality, with differences observed by reproductive age stage.It finds a negative relationship between income and fertility for women aged 20 to 29 that persists for women aged 30 and over and a negative relationship between education and adolescent fertility.A panel-data exercise with econometric techniques allowing us to control for unobserved heterogeneity confirms that income is a relevant factor for all groups of women and reinforces the crucial role of education in reducing teenage fertility.We also identify a negative correlation between fertility and employment rates for women aged 30 years old and over.Our study suggests a very relevant role for education in curbing fertility, especially among teenagers.