Anti-satellite warfare, proliferated satellites, and the future of space-based military surveillance

Will proliferated satellites enable a transparent battlefield in a way that might transform continental warfare? Many now think so. We argue, however, that anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities will limit satellites' potential contribution, but only if land forces adapt by deploying ground-based jamming and dazzling technologies. In a sustained measure-countermeasure competition, these non-kinetic approaches enjoy advantages that can deny an opponent effective use of space for battlefield surveillance. If ground forces contest the use of space in this way, the future battlefield will be much less transparent than many now expect.