Venezuela election uncertainty will bring instability

Significance The opposition remains confident that it will win the presidential contest on July 28. However, either defeat or victory will likely bring protests and pockets of political violence. The post-election period will be uncertain and unstable without strong steering from external allies. Impacts Mixed messaging will raise doubts over how a victorious opposition would deal with a defeated Chavista movement. Latin American and EU diplomacy will play the leading post-election role after US President Joe Biden decided to end his re-election bid. If the opposition loses, Machado would hope for renewed intervention from a second Trump presidency.