This paper analyzes and predicts the sales and pricing strategies of fresh produce through the Prophet time series prediction model, difference equation model, and multi-objective optimization model. Observations of the data reveal that sales exhibit intra-week and intra-year cyclical fluctuations, particularly significant changes during weekends and between March and June, with a peak in August. The analysis of six major categories of fresh produce using the Pearson and Spearman coefficients shows a strong positive correlation, reflecting the complementarity and substitutability of market demands. Integrating the results from these models, this study constructs an optimization model aimed at maximizing profits, proposing optimal replenishment volumes and pricing strategies, thereby validating the predictive accuracy and practical value of the models. Moreover, the model analysis sheds light on market trends and shifts in consumer preferences, offering new insights into supply chain management and product positioning within the fresh produce industry.
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Zhang et al. (2024) studied this question.
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