Early Numeracy Development as a Foundation of Mathematics Achievement in Primary Education

Purpose: This study aimed to investigate the 1) development of early numeracy (EN) between Kindergarten and Grade 1, 2) parental factors influencing this development, and 3) its predictive value for mathematics achievement mid-primary school. Method: The sample included 1252 children whose EN was measured bi-annually across six time points. Results: Latent growth curve modeling revealed non-linear growth in EN, with stronger effects of time throughout Kindergarten and a flattening curve in Grade 1, without reaching ceiling. Lower maternal education level and migration background were associated with lower EN at baseline, but these children also show greater improvement over time. Higher baseline EN and growth positively predict mathematics achievement in mid-primary school. Conclusions: Findings confirm significant EN development throughout early grades, but learning gains are not optimal in the current informal setting. Implications for early screening and intervention to address insufficient foundational skills, essential for later mathematics achievement, are addressed.