Ss56-04 From Heinrich’s Consequence-Based Triangle to a New Potential-Based Model to Predict and Prevent Safety Incidents and Accidents More Accurately: A Global Success Story

Introduction This work is focused on a conceptual change in analysis, prediction and prevention of safety incidents and accidents, especially occurrences involving serious and fatality potential. Materials and Methods Since 1938, Heinrich’s Triangle - that focused on the theory of one major accident for every 29 minor injuries, preceded by 300 near-misses - had been in wide use to analyse, predict and prevent safety incidents. This work is based on a new model and an enhancement to Heinrich’s theory, which purely focuses on ‘potential’ of safety incidents instead of the ‘actual consequence’. This conceptual change and its practical application have proven to be more effective and accurate. A detailed study was performed on more than 1500 safety incidents and injuries, over a period of five years purely focusing on the potential, irrespective of whether they were minor or major in terms of consequence. This study helped to identify important gaps in operational discipline or precursors and six ‘primary areas of greatest risks’. Addressing these issues helped eliminate the very causes that would lead to incidents and accidents in future. Results The HSE improvement program developed based on this new concept was effective, clear, and easy to implement. It helped eliminate fundamental gaps in work processes proactively and thus significantly reduce incidents and accidents, especially those with potential to cause serious harm. Conclusions This precursor-based approach provides a practical and effective direction to follow. In the real world, the simplicity and success of the theory is catching up fast among all levels of employees and contractors.