Predicting the Food Gap and the Amount of Self-Sufficiency for the Barley Crop in Iraq for the Period (2024-2035)

In this research, the food gap and the self-sufficiency rates of the barley crop were studied. The ARIMA grain model and the self-sufficiency rate of the barley crop were used during the period 1990-2022, and the best model was chosen based on the results obtained by this method. This period is divided into two periods, and it can be noted that the first period (1991-2003) was a period in which the economic blockade had a major impact, represented by the war that had an impact on the agricultural sector. As for the second period (2003-2022), which is considered one of the most difficult stages that the country went through due to the security conditions, the opening of imports, the lack of protection for farms, etc., the Box Jenkins time series method and ARIMA models were used to predict the variables of the food gap and self-sufficiency in the barley crop during the years (2024-2035), extracts the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation results for the time series, determines the ARIMA model ranking, and chooses the best model. The study showed that the best model for the self-sufficiency variable is ARIMA (5,0,1) and the best model for the food gap variable is ARIMA (8,0,8). The research concluded that Iraq suffers from a deficit, and in order to reduce the deficit, achieve self-sufficiency, and narrow the productivity gap, the study recommended following appropriate agricultural policies, increasing the area for barley cultivation, using high-yield seeds, and importing modern irrigation equipment (supplementary irrigation) in the central and southern regions. To address the lack of rain and receding water in the summer season, use highly efficient (triple) fertilizers to meet the needs and requirements of production factors. Emphasis on modern agriculture through agricultural programs will lead to a significant increase in yields, helping to increase self-sufficiency and reduce the food gap.