An Economic and Econometric Analysis of the Factors Affecting Food Security for the Wheat Crop in Iraq for the Period (1995-2022)

Despite the expansion of the use of formal variables as explanatory variables, their use as dependent variables is still limited. This may be due to the many problems that arise when using these variables as dependent variables. Therefore, the research aimed to use qualitative response models to measure the food security factor for wheat crops in Iraq for the period (1995-2022). The study aims to apply the TOBIT qualitative response model to identify the most important factors that increase the food security of the wheat crop in Iraq, by studying the relationship between the food security factor of the wheat crop and the independent variables (consumption, imports, national income, population, production, local price, exchange rate). The Tobit model regression parameters as a whole showed their significance at the 1% level, which is greater than 0.05. This is explained by the fact that the explanatory variables have a significant effect on the probability of the dependent variable (food security factor). Thus, the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative hypothesis ( H 1 ) is accepted, which states that the parameters of the explanatory variables ( b s ) for the Tobit model is not equal to zero. The production growth rate for the wheat crop during the research period appeared to be about (0.6%) and showed a positive sign.