Analysis on the Changes and Determinants of Expectation for Future Socioeconomic Status in South Korea

Expectations of future social class mobility not only affect individuals’ perceptions of life and attitudes toward social and economic activities, but also influence perceptions of socioeconomic structure, social integration, and government policies at the societal level. However, most of the previous studies on social class mobility expectations focus on cross-sectional studies limited to a single year or longitudinal studies limited to a certain period of time, which are limited in capturing the changes in individuals' perceptions over time. Using the 2005-2022 Korean Labor Panel Survey (N=311,172) of the Korea Institute of Labor Research, this paper analyzes how expectations of future social class upward mobility have changed over time and what factors affect individuals’ expectations through ordered logistic regression model. The results of the empirical analysis find that the expectations of upward socioeconomic status have declined and that the decline is not temporary but persistent across all generations. Furthermore, expectations of future social class upward mobility are influenced by personal characteristics such as age, education, and marital status, objective economic conditions such as employment, and family income and housing, and subjective perceptions of current economic conditions. The findings of this paper implies that efforts to reverse the trend are urgently needed as the decline in social class upward mobility expectations can lead to stagnation of social class.