In connection with the catastrophic floods in the spring of 2024 in the Western region of Kazakhstan, the goal was to conduct a critical analysis of the long-term dynamics of maximum water flow rates according to hydrological posts located along the main channel of the Zhaiyk River, for a retrospective assessment of the probabilistic recurrence of such values in 2024. The article discusses the main hydrological characteristics of floods on the Zhaiyk River for a long-term period up to 2021. Hydrological calculations, statistical analysis of long-term flow dynamics were carried out, and catastrophic years with high waters were identified in accordance with regulatory documents. The characteristic water levels in the years with correspondingly critical water consumption, as well as the area of flooding of territories, were studied, the time of the flood wave between hydrological posts, including the territory of Russia, was determined. In the future, it is planned to analyze the current situation for 2024, at the end of the flood and flood process in Western Kazakhstan.
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Tursynova et al. (2024) studied this question.
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