Research on the decoupling effect and driving factors of carbon emissions in Hubei province's industry：based on the perspective of developing new quality productive forces

Abstract Under the "dual carbon" goal, the new productive forces in the industrial energy sector will become an important force in promoting the green and high-quality development of the economy and society in Hubei Province. The article comprehensively applies the Tapio decoupling model and LMDI decomposition method, and uses panel data of the industrial industry in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2021 to empirically analyze the decoupling effect of industrial carbon emissions in Hubei Province and its driving factors. Our research has found that the industrial economic growth and carbon emissions in Hubei Province roughly exhibit a complex process of changes from strong decoupling to weak decoupling, then to strong decoupling, and finally to recessive decoupling. For a considerable period of time in the future, the industrial economic growth and carbon emissions in Hubei Province will still be weakly decoupled. From the decomposition results, it can be seen that the changes in the energy intensity index and carbon intensity index are basically consistent. The decrease in energy intensity has the greatest contribution to carbon dioxide reduction, becoming a key factor driving the reduction of industrial carbon intensity in Hubei. However, the dividends brought by structural effects are still not significant. On this basis, the article proposes relevant policy recommendations, providing theoretical basis and policy basis for the high-quality development of Hubei's industry and the construction of new productive forces in the post epidemic era.