College Basketball: An In-depth Study of the “Foul Up 3” Dilemma

To foul or not to foul? Within college basketball, the decision to foul or not with a 3-point lead (the foul up 3 dilemma) significantly affects teams. For example, a single fouling decision can directly determine the outcome of a game or even an entire season. Within this study, I take a novel look at the foul up 3 dilemma, which was previously studied within a single interval of time remaining on the game. As opposed to adjusting in such a way, I study the foul up 3 dilemma across time. Moreover, in this study, I consider time as a two-dimensional variable (time remaining on the game clock, time remaining on the shot clock) because of the relevance of both clocks in college basketball. My research focuses on generating a coachable strategy that outlines the superior fouling decision for many different time combinations.