Weight loss as a predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause death: a 34-year prospective cohort follow-up

Aim. To study the influence of body weight changes as a factor determining the risk of cardiovascular and all-cause death in a 34-year prospective follow-up of a Tomsk population cohort. Material and methods. This 34-year prospective study included 1546 people aged 20-59 years. In 1988-1991, anthropometric measurement and calculation of body mass index were performed, while in 20022005 — re-examination of the cohort with body weight assessment. In 2022, we studied the effect of body weight changes on cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Results. Prior body weight decreases by more than 5% is accompanied by an increase in all-cause death risk by 1,6 times compared to individuals with stable weight, and 2,3 times higher compared to those with body weight increased during the follow-up period. Cardiovascular death risk in the case of body weight decrease is 1,7 and 3 times higher, respectively. The best 17-year survival was established among individuals with an increase who had an increase in BW by more than 5%. Conclusion. A decrease in body weight by more than 5% is an independent predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause death. When assessing the cardiovascular and all-cause death risks, not only the current body weight should be taken into account, but also the previous direction of its changes.