A nomogram for predicting pathologic node negativity after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer patients: a nationwide, multicenter retrospective cohort study (CSBrS-012)

Purpose This study aimed to investigate the factors associated with pathologic node-negativity (ypN0) in patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) to develop and validate an accurate prediction nomogram. Methods The CSBrS-012 study (2010–2020) included female patients with primary breast cancer treated with NAC followed by breast and axillary surgery in 20 hospitals across China. In the present study, 7,711 eligible patients were included, comprising 6,428 patients in the primary cohort from 15 hospitals and 1,283 patients in the external validation cohort from five hospitals. The hospitals were randomly assigned. The primary cohort was randomized at a 3:1 ratio and divided into a training set and an internal validation set. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed on the training set, after which a nomogram was constructed and validated both internally and externally. Results In total, 3,560 patients (46.2%) achieved ypN0, and 1,558 patients (20.3%) achieved pathologic complete response in the breast (bpCR). A nomogram was constructed based on the clinical nodal stage before NAC (cN), ER, PR, HER2, Ki67, NAC treatment cycle, and bpCR, which were independently associated with ypN0. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the training set was 0.80. The internal and external validation demonstrated good discrimination, with AUCs of 0.79 and 0.76, respectively. Conclusion We present a real-world study based on nationwide large-sample data that can be used to effectively screen for ypN0 to provide better advice for the management of residual axillary disease in breast cancer patients undergoing NAC.