Assessment of tuberculosis transmission probability in three Thai prisons based on five dynamic models v1

This study aimed to assess and compare the probability of tuberculosis (TB) transmission based on five dynamic models: the Wells–Riley equation, two Rudnick & Milton-proposed models based on air changes per hour (ACH) and liters per second per person (L/s/p), the model proposed by Issarow et al, and the Applied Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) TB transmission model. The study also aimed to determine the impact of model parameters on such probabilities in three Thai prisons. The results revealed that the median (Quartiles 1 and 3) of TB transmission probability among these cells was 0.052 (0.017, 0.180). Compared with the pioneered Wells–Riley’s model, the remaining models projected discrepant TB transmission probability from less to more commensurate to the degree of model modification from the pioneered model as follows: Rudnick & Milton (ACH), Issarow et al., and Rudnick & Milton (L/s/p), and the applied SEIR models. The ventilation rate and the number of infectious TB patients in each cell or zone had the greatest impact on the estimated TB transmission probability in most models. All stakeholders must urgently address these influential parameters to reduce TB transmission in prisons.