Performance of five dynamic models in predicting tuberculosis incidence in three prisons in Thailand v1

This study examined the ability of the following five dynamic models for predicting pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence in a prison setting. This 1-year prospective cohort study employed 985 cells from three Thai prisons. The results show that a 1% increase in baseline TB transmission probability was associated with a 3%–7% increase in future PTB incidence rate, depending on the dynamic model. The Wells–Riley model exhibited the best performance in terms of both internal and external validity.