Prediction of Suitable Habitats for sect. Tuberculata (Camellia L.) Based on the MaxEnt Model

Abstract Sect. Tuberculata as one of the endemic plant groups in China, it belonging to the genus Camellia of the Theaceae family, possessing significant economic and ecological value. Nevertheless, the characteristics of habitat distribution and the major eco-environmental variables affecting its suitability are poorly understood. In this study, we have using 65 occurrence records along with 60 environmental factors, historical, present and future suitable habitats were estimated using MaxEnt modeling, and the important environmental variables affecting its geographical distribution were analyzed. The results indicate that the size of the potential habitat area of it in the current climate was 1.05 × 105 km2, and the highly suitable habitats were located in Guizhou, central-southern Sichuan, the Wuling Mountains in Chongqing, the Panjiang Basin, and southwestern Hunan. The highest probability of presence for it occurs at bio2 ≤ 7.83 °C, S_bs ≤ 53.36%, bio7 ≤ 27.49 °C, -7.75 °C < bio9 < 7.75 °C, uvb2 ≤ 1.31 × 105 W/m2, and uvb3 ≤ 5089.61 W/m2. In particular, bio2 is the most important environmental factor for it. During thehistorical, the potential habitat area of it was severely fragmented; in contrast, it is much more contiguous in the current period. In the three future periods, the potential habitat area will change by varying degrees, depending on the aggressiveness of emissions reductions, and the increase in the potential habitat area was the largest in the RCP2.6 scenario. Although the RCP8.5 scenario indicated an expansion in the habitat of it in the short term, their growth and development would be adversely affected in the long term. In the centroid analysis, the centroid of the potential habitat of it will shift from lower to higher latitudes in the northwest direction. The findings of our study will aid efforts to uncover the origins of it, their geographic differentiations, conservation of unique germplasms, and forestry development and utilization.