An Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Balance of Real Estate Project Financing Asset Backed Short Term Bond (PF-ABSTB)

This study analyzed the effect of interest rate indicators, yield indicators and pressure indices for real estate markets on the balance of issued real estate project financing asset backed short term bond (PF-ABSTB) among daily economic indicators through the Granger causality test, variance decomposition analysis using a vector error correction model and impact response analysis. As a result, the balance had an initially positive (+) relationship on the 1st impact of national treasury bond (NTB), commercial paper (CP) and certificate of deposit (CD), while negative (‒) on the 7th. The impact of call rates and pressure indices for real estate markets made the initial negative (‒) relationship, whereas positive (+) from the 3rd or 4th. CP was the most influential on the balance of issued real estate PF-ABSTB, while NTB was slight and CD, call rates and the pressure indices were very rare. Profitability through the issuance of real estate PF-ABSTB was believed to have more impact on the balance of the real estate PF-ABSTB than on the stability of financial institutions or companies in charge of credit reinforcement. Therefore, in order to maintain stable financial markets despite internal and external market shocks, it is necessary not only to establish a specific internal follow-up system for organizations related to the issuance of the real estate PF-ABSTB, but also to develop and apply new credit reinforcement measures rather than a simple risk transfer method through credit reinforcement agencies.