Scenarios for the development of Bulgarian livestock sector

The future is complex and uncertain, there are many factors affecting agricultural production that cannot be considered in advance. The aim of the study is to design scenarios for the future development of the dairy and meat sector in Bulgaria until 2027 and to assess the possibilities for their fulfilment. The different scenarios were designed on the basis of model calculations and expert opinions. The relative comparative assessment (RCA) methodology is applied to evaluate the probability for fulfillment. The scenarios for the dairy sector indicate a decline in production and number of animals, but a positive development for buffalo herd and milk production. The scenarios for the meat sector indicate a more positive development, as increases in the moderate and optimistic variants. For both sectors, the probability is the highest in the optimistic scenarios.