Analysis of factors determining the magnitude of the environmental impact of agricultural production on land resources

Abstract. The purpose is to assess the impact of factors determining the magnitude of the environmental impact of agricultural production on land resources. Methodology and methods. In the course of the study, nonparametric statistical methods were used to identify dependencies in the data set. When constructing predictive models, ROC-analysis was used to find the values of the cut-off point. Results. The study made it possible to localize three groups of regions of the Russian Federation that differ quite significantly in terms of the environmental impact of agricultural production on land resources and are characterized by a high level of dispersion within the groups. The analysis of the interrelations between the parameters characterizing the level of environmental impact made it possible to identify factors that have a decisive influence on the indicators of reproduction of land fertility. In regions with a high negative environmental impact, only the yield value is crucial, the growth of which leads to an increase in the uncompensated removal of soil fertility elements, and, accordingly, to the progression of land degradation. In regions with an average level of negative environmental impact, its magnitude also depends on the amount of organic fertilizers applied, which forms a less high level of uncompensated removal of soil fertility elements and, accordingly, environmental damage in the regions included in this group. In the group with a positive environmental impact, it is the level of application of organic fertilizers that has a decisive influence on the reproduction of land fertility. The regression analysis showed that when approximating the values of the positive environmental impact on land resources, the amount of organic fertilizers can be the most reasonable variable. ROC-analysis regarding the application of organic fertilizers for grain crops as a potential predictive parameter of positive environmental impact showed that its threshold value at the cut-off point is 2.56 tons per 1 ha. The scientific novelty lies in the formation of the evidence base of the dependence of land fertility on the parameters of agroecological impact necessary to understand the mechanisms of building a system of rational land use in agriculture.