Identification of Critical Transportation Risk Factors Using DEMATEL

Risk management on major transportation engineering and construction projects is a recognized necessity for successful delivery. Accurately identifying and assessing the probability and impact of each risk is complex. Risk events are often assumed to be independent, but neglecting the interactions and relationships among major risk factors can result in inaccurate risk ranking or cost and schedule model underestimates. This study explores the causal relationships between primary transportation risk factors using sentiment analysis of over 5,000 risk statements, and attempts to identify the most critical factors using the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL). The findings identify seven critical risk factors that have higher than average importance and are in the net cause group. Coordination with state and local agency stakeholders was the most critical factor, ranking highest in importance and fifth in its degree of effect on the network. The results can be incorporated into project risk assessments to more comprehensively evaluate the risk severity not only as an individual event, but considering its effect on the network of risk events as a whole.