Impact of the Atlantic Niño on California Ecosystem predictability

The Atlantic Niño is the dominant mode of sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Atlantic at interannual time scales. In the last decades this mode of variability has been identified as a driver of the Pacific Niño, increasing its predictability. The mechanism involved in the relation between the Atlantic Niño and ENSO is through the modification of the Walker Cell, altering surface winds in the western Pacific and triggering oceanic kelvin waves. These kelvin waves propagate to the east in the equatorial Pacific and along the north and South American coasts, altering the structure of the water column. The impact of this teleconnection on eastern boundary current upwelling systems has not been analyzed so far. This work demonstrates, for the first time, the impact of the Atlantic Niño on physical and biogeochemical processes in the California Current ecosystem, by the alteration of wind-driven coastal upwelling and the modification of upwelled source water properties. The mechanism relates an Atlantic Niño with enhanced production due to the uplifting of isopycnals, which that supplies more nutrients to the euphotic zone and enhances primary production and subsequent vertical export and remineralization at depth. In addition, statistical prediction is performed, indicating strong predictability of California Current biogeochemical variability from the equatorial Atlantic anomalous SSTs more than one year ahead.